Tariffs, inflation & holiday budgets — CNBC.com

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Holiday shopping is starting earlier than ever, with seasonal items already available at stores like Costco, as consumers face inflation and tariff concerns. Deloitte projects holiday sales will grow about 3% to $1.62 trillion, with e-commerce driving gains.

Key Takeaways

  • Holiday sales growth slows: Consumers are projected to spend up to $1.62 trillion this season, a 3% increase, though slower than last year’s 4.2% gain.

  • E-commerce sees big boost: Online sales are expected to grow 7% to 9% year-over-year, helping offset weaker in-store spending patterns.

  • Consumers remain cautious: Nearly half of shoppers started early, yet concerns over inflation mean many plan to spend less, pressuring retailers to offer discounts.