Global shipping faces heightened volatility as new tariffs, weaker Chinese demand, and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East disrupt trade flows and extend shipping routes. UNCTAD has cut its 2025 maritime trade growth forecast to 0.5%, warning that sustained geopolitical risks are reshaping global commerce.
Key Takeaways
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Forecast cut: UNCTAD lowered maritime trade growth expectations for 2025 to 0.5%, citing subdued industrial activity and complex trade conditions.
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Geopolitical strain: Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, along with tariff hikes, have driven up shipping costs and forced longer, less efficient routes.
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Longer-term outlook: Seaborne trade is projected to recover modestly between 2026 and 2030, with average growth of 2% annually.
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