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The National Retail Federation expects U.S. retail sales to rise 4.4% in 2026 to $5.6 trillion, outperforming decade-long averages despite inflation, labor concerns, and geopolitical risks.
Key Takeaways
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NRF projects stronger growth: Retail sales are forecast to expand 4.4% year over year.
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Consumer resilience drives optimism: The NRF sees household spending staying steady thanks to strong employment, rising tax refunds, and stable underlying economic fundamentals.
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Forecast divergence highlights uncertainty: While the NRF remains bullish, other analysts warn that household debt, high fuel prices, and softening job growth could restrain real spending.
