Global retail sales growth is expected to slow in 2026 across major markets, with Bain & Company forecasting modest gains driven more by inflation than real volume growth.
Key Takeaways
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U.S. slowdown amid consumer strain: Projected 3.5% retail sales growth reflects weaker confidence and a “flight to value.”
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U.K. faces muted demand: Modest 2% growth highlights persistent cost-of-living pressures and subdued discretionary spending.
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Europe’s fragile recovery: Germany and France expect restrained growth as saving-prone households and rising unemployment limit momentum.
