Data shows that Walmart and Target accelerated imports of toys, seasonal goods, and home products in early 2025 to avoid steep tariffs and labor disruptions. Their front-loading strategies drove a sharp rise in U.S. port activity before shipments dropped back off once tariffs resumed and freight costs spiked.
Key Takeaways
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Retailers shifted imports early: Target began pulling forward shipments in January, while Walmart peaked in March, timing purchases to manage costs ahead of tariffs and strikes.
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U.S. imports surged then dipped: Container volumes jumped by more than 15% early in 2025, but fell sharply in May and June once tariffs took effect and importers slowed orders.
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Freight costs fluctuated: Early movers gained predictability but not lower prices, with shipping rates rising again as paused orders resumed after tariff adjustments in May.
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