In this episode of 3-Minute Insights, we speak with Heather Reid, Director of Education Canada, and Accounting Insights for 8th & Walton, about the common confusion between Walmart’s Demand Forecast and Order Forecast.
Lainie: When you’re working with new suppliers, what’s the biggest mistake you see when they confuse Walmart’s demand forecast with the order forecast?
Heather: Absolutely—there’s a lot of confusion between these two because they’re actually different data sets within Walmart’s reporting. One looks at actual consumer sales—what Walmart’s customers are going to buy in stores—and that’s the demand forecast. Then there’s what’s called the order forecast, which is Walmart’s best projection of what they’re actually going to order from a supplier before the official purchase order is issued.
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Lainie: Can you provide an example of when the demand forecast and the order forecast would differ?
Heather: Excellent question, because they always differ. They never match up—and that’s where the biggest confusion comes into play. Everyone assumes the demand and order forecasts should align, but they really shouldn’t.
Think of it this way: if you’re having a dinner party, you’ll buy your food in advance. That’s planning for demand—how many people are you inviting, and how much will they eat? Suppose you have twelve guests. You plan for twelve meals based on your experience, trends, or seasonal preferences. That’s the demand forecast.
But the order forecast is when you actually go out to shop. You consider what you already have in your fridge or pantry—what’s in your existing “inventory.” You also account for practical factors like minimum order quantities or packaging requirements. So, the order forecast takes into account what’s on hand, what’s inbound, and what’s needed to meet the planned demand. These two numbers will never perfectly match.
Lainie: Given that they always differ, how should a supplier respond to those differences?
Heather: The key is to look at both forecasts. Many suppliers focus only on the order forecast because that’s tied directly to what Walmart will purchase. But the demand forecast tells the story behind the order—it reflects the rate of sale, past performance, and special events like rollbacks that may not repeat.
Understanding both gives suppliers the full picture. When an order forecast comes through, knowing the context behind the demand helps suppliers respond more accurately and avoid missteps.
Lainie: So when a supplier pays attention to both, they’re better prepared to respond and less likely to make mistakes.
Heather: Absolutely, Lainie. For sure.
